What is up with the excess mortality in the 25-44 age group in the United States?

What is causing excess mortality and death in 2021-2022?

The previous two years have had a profound effect on the general health of our population.  We have seen the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.  The data and numbers are difficult to fully understand, because the CDC and hospital data are difficult to obtain.  The CDC director Rochelle Walensky admitted on 3-15-22 that they do not have the hospital data to confirm deaths and comorbid conditions that led to death in the covid setting.  In other words, the data is fragmented, scattered, and not in a coherent logical sequence.  The CDC also has not released data for the 18-49 age group relating to covid as they were concerned “it would be mis-interpreted”.  We are flying blind a little bit here. However, there are other places that do compile mortality data in the government, and that data is being looked at very closely by numerous people.

There are a lot of questions about “excess death”.  Each year, actuaries “predict” yearly death totals based on historical norms and what the expected death count should be in our country.  One age group where this is easy to predict is the age 25-44 group.  Deaths tends to remain fairly steady each year.  Even in 2020, deaths were not overly excessive despite covid.  However, in 2021, our excessive death count began to increase dramatically.  Some attribute it to covid.  Others attribute it to increases in suicide and overdoses.  And yes, there are increases in death among the age 25-44 age group that fall into these categories.  But scientists working to interpret this data have found that even when you account for covid, suicide, and overdoses, and accidental deaths (drowning, motor vehicle accident, etc), the mortality excess is still very high.  There are some absolutely amazing scientists and researchers in our world who are working, mostly for free, to help understand what is going on with this populations health and death rates.  What several of them have uncovered is that starting in the spring of 2021, we started to see an unprecedented rise in “excess” deaths among all American age groups, but particularly in the age group that is 25-44. The reason this age group is concerning is because historically, this is not a “highly fatal” age group to be in.  Post teenage years where new drivers and poorly developed executive function contribute to accidents.  Younger than the average age for cardiovascular illness such as high cholesterol and high blood pressure.  Not a typical group with high incidence of cancer.  These are usually the “low risk years” health-wise, which is why life insurance is cheap to buy.  Your odds of living are MUCH greater than they are of dying.

So, why did we have 65,000+ excess deaths in 2021 in this age group?  And why are we already on the same pace in 2022 with a 46% increase in deaths above expected when we are only 3 months into the new year?  Here you will see the graph of excess mortality.  Green is 2020, blue is 2021, and maroon is 2022.

A wonderful scientist on Twitter named Ethical Skeptic has been doing a TON of research on excess death as well.  He pinpointed that excess deaths began occurring in 2021 among age 25-54.

The two graphs below show the increase in deaths due to renal failure in all age groups and liver failure in age 35-64.  Why the sudden increase in liver and kidney failure associated death?  Why did this begin so suddenly and ominously in 2021?  During 2020, this was not occurring.

In the next graph from Ethical Skeptic, he examines ALL mortalities, minus covid, minus suicide, and minus overdose, in the age 15-35 age group.  The hashed line is “normal”.  The solid line is where we currently are. This is a stunning increase in an age group that usually experiences low rates of death.

Then increases in lymphatic disease death and Non-Hodgkin lymphoma deaths. 

This is not just happening in the United States.  Check out this data from Chile: the only age group NOT affected with excess mortality is the age 14 and under group:

So what does this data tell us?  SOMETHING is contributing to excess deaths.  SOMETHING is making our death count go up significantly higher than it has in any previous year.  SOMETHING that started in early 2021 sparked the dramatic increase. Any logical individual will blame delayed medical care on some of these deaths. A missed diagnosis due to covid lockdown and poor access to diagnostics during the peak of lockdowns. However, that period of time was from March-May 2020, with most healthcare facilities reopening in May-June, 2020. So that could certainly count for some of the excess deaths, if the diagnosis was severe enough that it would go from treatable to lethal in 2 months of a delay in diagnosis. I personally believe, as do many other data analysts, that a 2 month delay during lockdown is a low percentage of the cause of excess mortality. Most scientists are afraid to come out and say it, but the increase in all cause mortality spikes are correlated with the introduction of the covid vaccine.  And the significant spike in the fall is correlated to the time period when employers and schools began mandating vaccinations.  This excess mortality increase is a big reason why vaccines need to be examined closer.  Are there certain age groups that have more complications from a covid vaccine?  Are there certain underlying health conditions that should maybe be exempted from having a covid vaccine?  Is the benefit of the vaccine greater than the risk for ALL PEOPLE?   *I am not SAYING the vaccine is the cause.  I am not a scientist that can make that determination.  But many people, with specialty degrees in this area, are starting to make this connection and say the words out-loud.  What I will say is that this is why freedom of choice to vaccinate or not should be individual, with informed consent given, and personal autonomy. Because these questions above need to be answered for a patient to give true consent to a vaccine, and for those who it is riskier than it is beneficial should not be mandated to vaccinate.